Kerry Lutz's--Financial Survival Network

Jerry Robinson, David Erfie, Craig Hemke, Buck Joffrey, and David Horowitz

Ace trader Nick Santiago nails it again! No more interest rate hikes and Nick is call for a September cut. Sounds like it's good for gold, which Nick believes is setting up a very bullish chart pattern. Stock market has probably peaked. Dollar to go higher and yield to fall on treasuries. Connect the dots and make money!

Craig and I discussed the then upcoming Fed Meeting. Craig believed they would do nothing, and they didn't disappoint. Rate hikes are off the table now, probably because the next recession is on its way. Was does that mean for you? Gold is likely getting ready to bust through the 1350-1380 major resistance point and you want to be on the right side of that trade. We've seen this before and we'll see it again soon. Craig also said that the Fed's asset disposition program would be tapered off. Right again, that's exactly what's in the cards. Sometimes all you need to do is tune into Craig's podcast and then  wait for the actual news to unfold. 

Buck Joffrey, MD turned real estate investor is bearish on gold. He sees much more potential in real estate than in the yellow metal. He doesn't believe all the doom and gloomers, of which he used to be one. Forget about hyperinflation and dollar collapse. Forget about cities and states ready to declare bankruptcy. It doesn't matter. And neither does the escalating debt. Real estate is still the place to be. 

Of all of man’s addictions, debt is perhaps the most harmful and destructive. Time and again, profligate debt and spending has brought down civilizations. And it’s  happening now. The Trump Admin has proposed holding colleges and universities liable for their defaulting students. A great first step that will probably never happen, due to the powerful educational-industrial lobby. But why stop there, why not tax debt or at least prohibit its deductibility? We need to see interest rates go to their natural and normal levels. Nothing short of this will stop the boom bust economy of the last hundred plus years. 

Accoding to Florida real estate expert Robert Paolini, unlike many real estate markets around the country, Florida is booming. In many cities there are construction cranes as far as the eye can see. They could even be mistaken for downtown Shanghai. It’s partly due to a long term population shift, with more Northerners moving for better weather, but it’s also being caused by runaway taxes in northern states and California, et al. Either way, it looks like it’s going to continue for quite a while. 

Noted author and conservative activist David Horowitz believes that there’s a war being conducted by the Left to destroy Christian America. Every day, the Left attacks more and more US traditions and customs. There’s no respect for anything that the country has achieved. It’s all about the evil of the racist Founding Fathers and white privilege. But David believes the right will win in the end.

Gerard Lemairo has been predicting the demise of the current Democrat Party since 2015. It appears that this prediction is coming to pass. With the rise of anti-Semitic factions, pro-socialist interests and the inability of Nancy Pelosi to lead the House, how much longer can this Party go on? Gerard thinks 2021 will be the official date of its downfall, right after Trump wins his second term. Will Gerard be right?

There's many changes afoot in the gold mining sector. The so-called GDX-J appears to be ready undergo another makeover. This time non-cashflowing companies will be removed from the index. Only producers and royalty companies will be included. What about all those exploration companies? How will this impact their ability to raise capital? We talk extensively about Barrick-Newmont-Goldcorp and where they're heading. Large numbers of projects will be spun-off to raise capital and lower debt. What will the industry look like next year at this time? But this spells major opportunity for those with capital and expertise. 

Probably not much. It's in their interest to just sit back and wait while the rest of the world opens up the money spigot. They'll probably wind up doing that too, but right now they can just keep the machine idling until the direction becomes clearer. We also had a discussion about Basel III. It could be that once again gold reserves will be considered money. Is that too much to hope for and would it upend the international monetary system? It does help explain renewed central bank buying. 

We met Jerry years ago; he's an ace trend trader. That means he's looking for hot markets to put his money into. It's often said that the trend is your friend and Jerry believes that the trend is looking up for Gold, Cannabis, Cryptos and China. It's translating that belief into action that's the hard part. He sees gold going up as a result of endless US deficits and the pressure that will come to bear on the dollar. Cannabis is just getting started. Imagine the gold rush if it gets taken off the Schedule A list of dangerous drugs. He's bullish too on cryptos and believes that Bitcoin will rise again. And finally, he believes that China is already the largest economy on the planet, in terms of individual purchasing power, and will keep on rising. Let's see what happens next. 

The Republican Liberty Caucus head Matt Nye joined us. Looks like there's some major movement in the Mueller Probe. The so-called Bulldog is leaving to go spend more time with his family and he will assume a teaching position to help free wrongly convicted innocent people . I wonder if some of them will be people he put away.

Show me a failing city and I'll show you a democrat mayor. The evidence is ample! In some cities, the last non-democrat mayor was a Whig Party member. No wonder Johnny can't read, write or do 'rithmetic. 

Andy Schectman head of respected bullion dealer Miles Franklin joined us. Business is good. Perhaps more people are looking for the ultimate safe haven that precious metals afford. We examined several precious metals market anomalies and there are lot more. The gold silver ratio at around 84-1 is completely out of whack. The premium on junk silver is running less than one percent. Platinum prices are at generational lows when compared to gold and palladium. And finally, the palladium price is higher than gold and almost double that of platinum. What's going on here and how long can it go on? And last but not least, JP Morgan Chase has accumulated nearly 1 billion ounces of silver, the largest hoard ever assembled. Why would they be accumulating this barbarous relic, along with mining stocks, SLV and other silver ETF's. Some might dare call it manipulation; they've won every single metals trade they've made for years. 

Gordon T. Long joined us for a discussion of the emerging deDollarization trend. Besides being a diversification/defensive move for other nations, it's also a reaction to government efforts to impose American Justice outside US Borders. The US enemies list keeps on growing. Can we continue on like this and for how long? Gold has clearly been a beneficiary of this trend. It's back over $1300 again. Let's see what happens next. 

Brad Williams addresses U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps as Current Views Hit 18-Year High U.S. consumer confidence improved in February, topping all forecasts and snapping a three-month losing streak, after the U.S. government ended the longest shutdown in the country’s history and the trade war edged toward a resolution.

The confidence index climbed to 131.4 from 121.7, the New York-based Conference Board said in a report Tuesday. That compared with a Bloomberg survey of economists that called for a rise to 124.9. The measure gauging Americans’ views on present conditions rose to an 18-year high while consumer expectations posted the largest monthly gain since 2011.

The increase comes amid a solid job market and a rally in stocks that have offered consumers reasons to look past uncertainty surrounding the longest-ever government shutdown and trade war with China. The Federal Reserve’s pledge to be patient on raising interest rates may also be supporting the economic outlook.

The gauge is in line with other sentiment indicators for February that show Americans are more upbeat. The University of Michigan’s sentiment reboundedfrom a two-year low and topped projections, while the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort expectations measure also snapped back, posting the biggest jump in a decade.
Official’s View

“Consumers continue to view both business and labor market conditions favorably,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “Expectations, which had been negatively impacted in recent months by financial market volatility and the government shutdown, recovered.”

The share of respondents saying business conditions will be better in six months increased to the best level since November.
The labor differential, which measures the gap between respondents who say jobs are plentiful and those saying they’re hard to get, climbed to an 18-year high, a sign the labor market remains strong. Buying plans for cars, homes and major appliances all declined.

You have to give the Left credit. Whether it's implementing their socialist agenda or terminating the population's gun rights, they never give up. According to Karen Kataline, the new Red Flag legislation sweeping the nation is merely a ploy by arch gun-grabber Michael "Nanny" Bloomberg to unconstitutionally seize citizen weapons and deprive them of their Second Amendment rights. There's virtually no due process contained within these laws and there's a very limited right of appeal. What will SCOTUS do? 

This is why Americans don’t save — even when they know better
The journey to retirement can be perilous

Americans know they need to save for retirement, but find it difficult to do so.
Todd Kunsman started preparing for retirement in 2011, only a year out of college, but he didn’t take it seriously until three years later.

He had been contributing to a 401(k) plan, but not enough for a match. He’s moved companies twice since then, and has rolled his assets into an individual retirement account. At his current job, a startup, he doesn’t have a defined-contribution plan, but he maxes out a Roth IRA. “For me, a Roth IRA of $6,000 a year is really not enough,” he said.

Kunsman, who is the blogger behind Invested Wallet in addition to his full-time job in marketing, is saving about 60% of his income and working a side hustle. His goal is to retire in his 40s, if he chooses to by then. He’s had to overcome numerous hurdles first, including paying down student loans, increasing his income, learning more about investing and putting away retirement savings while also living on his own and paying off his car. “I left money on the table without realizing it because of my financial illiteracy at the time,” he said.

The world's central banks are like a bunch of kids playing bumper cars. You control your collisions with one pedal, you can take your foot off the gas to slow down, or you can depress it to speed up. Either way, there's going to be a pile up. Now it looks like the Fed has gotten back into the action and who knows when the fun will stop. Perhaps with a massive power failure like Venezuela. In other news that's not so new, the Dems have finally found an economic system they can believe in - socialism/totalitarianism seems to be in vogue yet again. Everything old is eventually new again, like short skits and wide ties. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) is looking up again, at least if you believe in the yellow metal. Speculators have jumped the ship/shark and commercials have gone long. How much longer can it be? 

A tale of two companies/economies: Lowes Earnings vs Home Depot by Jeff Small, President of "Arbor Financial Author of new book, Turning Financial Planning, Right-Side Up."

Lowes Earnings
Lowes was one penny above expectation revenue slightly below projections. Same store sales and comps where 1.7% v’s expected 2.1%.
2.4 domestically relative to home depot which did 3.7%. 
 
Month of January comp of 5.8% for Lowes positive sign. Lowes is narrowing the gap but home depot is still in the lead on the metrics.

Lowes has a 5% deficit in operating margins with same store sales compared to Home depot. This should change with the new Home Depot management at Lowes. I pick Lowes to out perform HD over the next 12 months. Even though I believe we are at the top end of the range in upward stock movement for both.

The market investors are overly concerned about the housing market and the home improvement sector as a whole. But this fears are not unfounded with the slowdown that is occurring in the real estate sector. Contrary to this rising wages and strong employment look good for both HD and Lowes. However, despite this we are seeing slowdowns in consumer spending in retail, restaurants and real estate.

This ties in with the Democrats strategy of rolling back the economic reforms passed by the Trump Team. The problem is that we don't have to money to enact their programs. Free stuff is very expensive!

Canada’s government is in crisis. The former attorney-general has blown the whistle on corruption and abuse of power. Of course it’s all in the name of protecting jobs for Canadians. But that tale is quickly unraveling. While the political situation continues to deteriorate, so too does the Canadian economy. Home sales have declined and household debt is at record levels. So much for soft landings. 

Well known financial expert Jim Puplava joined us. As we all know the current situation is unsustainable. Deficits are increasing, the economy is weakening - even after the stimulus of profiligate government spending and the tax cuts. This will lead to a situation where hard assets may well become popular again. Jim is extremely concerned that the government and the Fed are the main movers of the markets and the economy. This has led to volatility and an element of unpredicability, especially in the era of Trump And we’re in for lots more of it. 

Throughout the millennia people have sought out and acquired gold. Perhaps it really is the world's third oldest profession. That's why it's appropriate that Aton Resources (FSN Company Sponsor) has gone back to Egypt in search of the Pharaoh's lost gold. And geologist Javier Orduña may just have found it. He's currently exploring Rodruin, an ancient Egyptian mine that hadn't been touched in over 1600 years. Preliminary results are highly encouraging with even the old tailings piles showing 20 grams per ton. We'll be checking in with him regularly for updates. 

As Eric said on a number of occasions, gold would rise into Q4 of 2018. In fact, it continued its rise into February and promptly broke down. Eric's not see any further moves until the summer. Perhaps then we'll see the highly anticipated bull market resumption. He believes we're seeing the emergence of a bear stock market. Dollar is getting toppy but it could be a multi-year process. Many markets will trade within defined channels for quite a while before it's on to the next trend. 

Jordan Roy Byrne joined us for a look at the latest precious metals smackdown. As he said at the Vancouver Metals Investor Forum in January, gold is still technically in a bear market. Until it starts making higher highs and higher lows, this will continue. He was hopeful during gold's recent advance that it would break the trend line on the upside, but alas the rally ran out of gas. We probably won't see a steep decline, but we'll have to wait for the later in the year and see where it goes. 

Gold and precious metals as man expected were slammed on Friday. Fifth time since approaching the magical 1350 resistance point. The decline will probably continue on for several more months until a summer rally or Q4. Not to worry though, the Fed is in a box again. With stock markets rising, the impetus to ease off rate hikes has diminished. But tightening could well send the markets into another decline, which the Fed doesn't want to trigger. So it's a matter of Speak Loudly and Turn Up the Printing Presses and hope that no one notices.