A look at what’s happening to big cities after the pandemic. A look at postal change of address forms, it’s quite shocking.

Chicago’s change-of-address notices more than doubled over last year’s for the period from February 1 to August 1; New York City’s are up 490%; San Francisco’s up 180%; Los Angeles’s up 96%; Washington D.C.’s up 160%; Houston’s up 60%; and Philadelphia’s up 60%. 

Thomas Jefferson’s disdain for big cities and his agrarian vision for America was based partly on the danger of epidemics. He lived through a major one, yellow fever in 1793 that killed one in ten people in Philadelphia, then the nation’s capital. We’ll see if the cities have outlived their usefulness. Will people come back to Chicago, San Francisco, New York, etc. Will remote workers pack it in? 30% of San Francisco is vacant. Personal safety is a key reason why people are fleeing. People are moving to smaller communities and smaller cities are benefiting from the transition. Large cities will be going belly up. Living conditons are getting worse and worse. Even if they do get bailouts, will that have any lasting impact?  How will people ever return? 

What happens when tech starts contracting. 

Exit plan. Rent don’t own. Live away from the problem areas. Adjust to remote working. Look at what is happening. Resort areas are becoming very popular. Prices are going up. Much better quality of life. Jefferson would be retreating to the hills of Virginia. 

The walkability index is turning into the run-ability index, how fast people can run out of dodge. 

Direct download: Mark_Glennon_04.Nov.20.mp3
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