Aug 26, 2022
Summary:
Rates are going up for the foreseeable future. What does this mean
for unemployment, the forthcoming recession, and our economic well
being? Jim Welsh has conducted thorough research on rate increases
and unemployment, and comes on the show to share his finds. Using
data trends that span back to the 1950s, Jim projects what the near
future will look like—with a recession guaranteed in 2023—and notes
some of the looming indications of this global recession.
Highlights:
-Jim starts at the year 1950, looking at inflation rates and
increase in unemployment rates
-The fed funds rate went up 90% from where it started from
-The stock market is not cut out for an unemployment rate above
5%
-The risk of recession has been high, and now that the Fed is above
neutral, we’ll see a recession in 2023
-Most of the people with savings are those in the upper 50% of
earners—we’re seeing unbalanced consumers
-There are some real stress areas in the economy, but those are the
reasons why a recession starting this year wasn’t likely. Rather,
we will see one next year
-Europe’s energy prices are extremely indicative of a recession
taking place next year
Useful Links:
Financial Survival Network
Macro Tides