Feb 26, 2021
It’s a dangerous time to be a novice investor at this particular time, ie Gamestop. The stock had $3 and got to nearly $500. The triggered short squeeze was legendary. Never mistake a bull market for genius. Just because you got lucky doesn’t mean you’ll keep repeating the process. No one really knows what the top is. It’s a process. Bottoms are an event. The signs are all. SPAC’s are another sign of topping. Most of these deals are garbage, Dan urges caution. There’s nothing new under the sun.
It’s all about valuation and cash flow and eventually prices go too far and comes back to earth. Innovation disrupters can be profitable, but they can be very dangerous. Avoid irrational exuberance at all costs.
Dan says that today, life is better for more people on earth than at any time in the past. He believes that cash is the best hedge against market instability indicative of a top. Have plenty of cash, gold, silver and some Bitcoin too. Always take money out of the market from your profits. You’re there to make money so you can have it spend as you want. You're not a Las Vegas gambler doubling down on every bet till you finally crap out.
Hyperinflation is misunderstood overly feared. To have it you need a major war and the massive destruction of capital assets and lots of people in financial and physical dire straights. A pandemic looks like it could trigger it but we need more than that.
His view on Cryptos is that they're a burgeoning store of value whose staying power is untested. In the modern world it has a number of potential benefits and vulnerabilities such as the downing of the electrical grid in Texas. People there were not clamoring for Bitcoin, they wanted electricity, heat and hot water.
In a final world of advice, Dan says, "Prepare don’t predict." We don’t know what will happen and we shouldn’t try. Instead diversification is your best strategy!