Kerry Lutz's--Financial Survival Network

The Fed "paused" but didn't stop? What does that mean? Are we there yet? Stocks tanked on Friday. Europe might be a big story in 2H. Recession, spiking interest rates, German deindustrialization. China meltdown continues, where will it end? San Francisco is failing, the laboratory of democracy. Violence over the weekend across the country was stupefying. Trump indictment backfires, majority of country see it as politically motivated.  The Biden recordings might be a huge deal. Or they might be buried by the MSM. The Rogan/Kennedy/Hotez thing is hilarious. 

John Rubino and Kerry Lutz discussed a range of topics, including the Fed's decision to pause interest rate hikes, Europe's financial crisis, China's real estate bubble, San Francisco's real estate market, endless war, Rfk Junior's popularity, and conspiracy theories surrounding JFK's assassination. They also shared personal updates and discussed future plans. John argued that the Fed's decision to pause interest rate hikes is not necessarily good news, and they analyzed Europe's financial crisis, including the new green deal and its potential consequences for the economy.

They also discussed China's real estate bubble, which is bigger than Japan's in the 90s and the US bubble in the 2000s, and the consequences of lockdowns in China. They touched on San Francisco's poor management and the issue of violence across the country. They reflected on the prevalence of war in US history and the potential for a nuclear war, as well as Rfk Junior's popularity and his take on vaccines and corruption within the healthcare establishment. Finally, they delved into conspiracy theories surrounding JFK's assassination. 

Visit John at: https://rubino.substack.com

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Gerald Celente and Kerry Lutz discussed various topics, including the dangers of the military industrial complex, the negative consequences of US interventions in other countries, the state of the economy and real estate trends, and the JFK assassination. They criticized politicians on both sides for supporting war and sending money to Ukraine while the country's infrastructure is falling apart. Celente predicted that the equity markets would crash due to the building bust rate and high vacancy rates in office buildings, which would affect various financial institutions. They also discussed the need for diplomacy over military interventions and the lack of major peace movements in the country.

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Noted cycle analyst Eric Hadik joined us for a market overview. He believes the dollar will stay close to its current range for a protracted period of time. Interest rates have peaked and are heading lower, perhaps in anticipation of the coming election cycle. 

What affect this will have on housing is yet to be determined. Rates look like they are staying higher than they were during the housing bull market. 

Gold should have a pullback soon and then proceed higher. Depending upon the extent of the pullback, they could go substantially higher. 

Oil should see higher prices coming after its current consolidation. 

Bitcoin could see a major increase come July, if it manages to stay above the $25,000 range that it's currently occupying. 

A very interested and detailed look into the markets. 

Visit Eric at: insiidetracktrading.com

Federal Reserve – to hike or not to hike

Pause is expected – further notes after the release of the interest rate move

Bullish stocks, low bond yields and recovering housing market suggest interest rates aren’t that restrictive

The Fed’s mission has been to get interest rates high enough to slash inflation from its current 4% to 5% range to 2%, even if that means pushing the economy into recession and unemployment higher. If the Fed had succeeded, you probably wouldn’t be seeing these things: stocks entering a new bull market, a rebounding housing market or long-term Treasury yields well below the inflation rate.

Typically, when the Fed raises short-term rates, stock prices fall, and long-term bond yields and the dollar rise. That’s what happened for the first six months of Fed tightening in more or less textbook fashion.

But since October, all have changed direction. The S&P 500 is up 22% since last fall’s low. This reflects rising earnings forecasts and excitement about artificial intelligence

Behind the rally in stocks is a belief that inflation will soon plummet as pandemic-related distortions of prices for new and used cars, apartment rents and houses all reverse.  Then the economy will slow due to rate hikes and eventually the Fed will cut rates.

Banks are tightening lending – GDP grew 1.6% (lower then long term run rates) unemployment rose to 3.7%

Yet somehow we continue to see the economy moving forward.

Markets are pricing in a high probability that central bank policymakers will “skip” — an expression they generally prefer to “pause” — at this month’s meeting as they digest the impact of 5 percentage points worth of increases going back to March 2022.

Not an end

Inflation is dropping – good sign 4% y over y probably cemented the decision to pause

Stop to evaluate – what do the post meeting minutes say?  The details are important

Are they leaning towards raising rates further? – likely to see a rate hike in July 25-26 meeting.

What happens with GDP.  Continued improvement or a “shallow recession”.

A pause recognizes that there’s a lag between what we do and when it shows up in the economy and inflation.

What does Powell say at the press conference – probably committed to continued lowering inflation and keeping the hiking door open.  Most likely no comment about July move.

Finding the balance between enough aggression to bring down inflation while not tanking the economy is the Fed’s ultimate goal.

History suggests that central banks that pause usually commence hiking soon after they discover that inflation hasn’t been vanquished

 a recession remains the most likely case for most economists.

The risk in continuing to raise interest rates is something will break more structurally than it has so far

Then they would have to lower interest rates if they cause a recession. In the past, we’ve had very few periods where the fed funds rate went up then plateaued. Usually, the Fed overdoes it

During the meeting, Kerry Lutz and Aaron Clary discussed the benefits of getting off the societal support and validation grid by building your own home. They argued that this approach could provide economic opportunities and valuable skills, and could be a solution to the housing crisis. They also discussed the potential mental benefits of opting-out of society and rediscovering oneself, but acknowledged that not everyone will participate in this trend.

Kerry Lutz and Eddie Gifford analyzed the latest CPI and PPI numbers, highlighting the potential for stagflation and its impact on the markets. They also discussed the ongoing FOMC meeting and the possibility of a hawkish stance from the Fed. The role of AI in investment portfolios was explored, with an emphasis on the need for interpretation of AI-generated inputs. Additionally, the importance of having a well-defined investment strategy with an exit plan and risk management in place was emphasized. They suggested dollar-cost averaging and building a position over the next 12-18 months, with profit targets and stops in place. The current state of the market was also discussed, with the suggestion that volatility is around the corner, making it important to have a plan in place.

During the meeting, Kerry Lutz interviewed Joseph Gradante, the Founder of Allio Finance, about the company's mission to democratize access to sophisticated investing strategies. Alio Finance uses an AI-powered investment engine that utilizes machine learning and future forecasting to optimize portfolios, providing users with a flexible and affordable investment experience. The interview covered the technology behind the engine, the cost to users, and the potential impact on the market, as well as the importance of financial literacy and taking ownership of one's financial future.

Links:

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Economic historian extraordinaire is with us today to explain the credit bust, where it's heading, where we're going, and put it in historical perspective as well. As Bob explains, this credit/economic bust is just like all the others, only potentially much worse. This is great news for the US Dollar and eventually gold. But it's bad news for tech stocks and the rest of the economy. Bob believes that this ultimate credit bust will lead the world to head back to a gold stand and that's a good thing. Gone will be the days of financial engineering by the world's inept conflicted and compromised central bankers. Sound money is just a digital printing press away. 

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During the meeting, Kerry Lutz and Eddie Seidel discussed the recent job numbers and consumer credit. Eddie pointed out that the added jobs are lower paying and without benefits, and they discussed the potential impact of high levels of consumer credit on the economy. Eddie suggested being cautious with investments and hedging in sectors such as manufacturing, energy, and utilities. They also touched on the narrowness of the market and the potential for a come-to-Jesus moment with valuations. Eddie suggested that the economy may not be as strong as people are touting it to be, and that the feds may take a pause or skip an interest rate increase. They also discussed the potential impact of inflation and the importance of being cautiously optimistic.

Visit Eddie at: https://EGSIFinancial.com

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During the meeting, Kerry Lutz and John Rubino discussed various economic and political issues. They talked about the possibility of Europe being in recession due to revised data and how it could affect the ECB's policies. They also discussed the potential triggers for the next recession, such as the student loan crisis and predatory practices of credit card companies. The real estate bubble in China and the impending crisis that is likely to occur due to massive youth unemployment and defaults on mortgages was also highlighted, along with the potential impact on the global economy.

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FSN

Addison Wiggin was with Kerry to discuss a broad range of topics related to finance and economics. They talked about the importance of understanding big trends and positioning personal money accordingly, as well as the mistakes made during the boom and the importance of good investment practices. They also discussed the causes of inflation and how it is impacted by the reserve currency of the world, arguing that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon and that the Federal Reserve's policies have a global impact.

Bob is an experienced franchise consultant who provides personalized guidance and support to clients throughout the entire process of Franchise evaluation, financing, and acquisition. Having spent over 30 years in franchise development and consulting, Bob has a deep understanding of the industry and is committed to helping people achieve their personal and financial goals through franchise ownership.

Bob’s expertise includes identifying his clients’ goals and preferences, researching and selecting the right franchise opportunity, helping with financing options, and navigating the legal and operational aspects of franchise ownership.

Through his decades of experience, Bob has developed strong relationships with both franchisors and franchisees, and he is known for his exceptional service and commitment to helping his clients make informed decisions that align with their unique goals and aspirations.

Whether you’re looking to exit your corporate life or explore semi-passive franchise opportunities, Bob is here to help you find your perfect match and create a brighter future for you and your family. With his guidance and support, you can achieve the greatest level of satisfaction and success through franchise ownership.

SUGGESTED INTRODUCTION:

Meet Bob, one of the nation’s top franchise consultants, who is passionate about helping people achieve the greatest level of satisfaction and success through franchise ownership. With years of experience guiding clients toward top-performing franchise brands, Bob provides personalized guidance and support throughout the entire process of franchise exploration. Whether you’re looking for an exit strategy from corporate life or a semi-passive opportunity, Bob is here to help you find your perfect match and create a brighter future.

INTERVIEW TOPICS

• Why Investing in Franchises Outperforms Real Estate Investment

• Top Franchise Opportunities That Generate Lucrative Returns for Under 200K

• Part-Time Wealth Building with Semi-Passive Franchise Investments

• How To Find The Perfect Franchise Fit

• Can You Sell Your Job?

• Insider Secrets of Successful Franchise Investors

• Franchise Scaling Strategies for Creating Multi-Generational Wealth

  CONNECT WITH BOB
• Email: Bob@FranchiseWithBob.com
   
  Phone: (610)506-0002 

           Linkedin:  in/robert-bernotas-a62290102

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Jim Masiello, the founder of insurance giant SIAA, had banks and the IRS come after him for tens of millions of dollars. He fought them for two years and was able to negotiate a deal with the IRS to pay $400 a month for ten years, which ended up being $48,000. He learned that hard work and persistence can pay off and that it is important to build relationships in business.

Get the book at: https://www.amazon.com/Screw-U-Memoir-Jim-Masiello/dp/1958729396

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Dave Dubeau helps real estate investors access private capital to grow their portfolios. He recommends bringing on a joint venture partner to share in the risks and rewards of a deal, and suggests getting featured on podcasts to show their network that they know their stuff. He also advises to keep deals simple and to educate their network about the benefits of investing in real estate.

Kerry Lutz and Jeremy Cordon discussed Gold Backs, a form of commodity money that is split into a thousand pieces and wrapped in a protective layer to make it nearly impossible to counterfeit. Nearly half of all small businesses approached are interested in accepting Gold Backs. Since 2019, they have become the most successful local currency in American history. They are worth four dollars each and have a 5% spread on them, tighter than silver.

Russell Stone discussed the current state of the economy with Kerry Lutz on the Financial Survival Network. He believes that the Consumer Confidence Index is a hiccup and that the market is trending down due to the decrease in used car prices, real estate prices, and unemployment. He suggests that people should have a base of their portfolio in precious metals and money market accounts that only buy T-bills. He believes that the US government is in trouble due to its debt and unfunded liabilities and that the day of reckoning is coming. He suggests that people should pull out unnecessary money from the market, buy low and high, and pay off debt. He believes that the deflationary cycle is underway and that the government will have to write off some debt in order to get the economy going.

Roei Ganzarski's company Alithieon has developed a technology that enables authentication and verification of items without the need for etching, serial numbers, or any other form of identification. This technology uses a feature print to identify items with just a camera. BMW is the lead investor in the company, which has over 45 patents and is already being used in five distinct segments, including luxury goods, collectibles, transportation, DOD, and pharmaceuticals. The technology is robust enough to identify items even after they have been altered or scratched, and can even identify counterfeit items. The company is currently privately held, but hopes to go public in the next 24 months.

Visit Alithieon's site at:  https://alitheon.com

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Wayne Zell, a CPA and attorney, discussed the importance of having an exit plan in place when starting a business. He recommends creating a revocable trust to avoid probate and to maintain control of the business. He also suggests having a management succession plan in place to ensure family harmony and to benefit the community. Wayne also advises entrepreneurs to make time for their passions outside of work and to plan for the future after exiting the business.

Visit Wayne at: https:/waynezell.com

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Jordan Roy-Byrne agrees that the market often seeks to frustrate the majority of participants, especially in the precious metals and mining stocks, particularly the juniors. He believes that gold will break out above $2100 when the economy moves towards a recession and the Fed is forced to ease policy. This could happen as soon as September or as late as winter.

Christina Curtis believes that success is no accident and that it requires getting comfortable with being uncomfortable, managing cognitive dissonance, and setting up a regiment that brings out one's best. She also suggests that eating healthy food can help increase productivity.

David Erfle and Kerry Lutz discussed the differences between the price of metals and stocks, and how the lack of retail investors in the sector has allowed for manipulation of stock prices. They also discussed the debt ceiling and how it is used as a political tool, and how it is ultimately meaningless.

Kathleen Day has written a book about the history of financial crises in the US, which have been occurring since the founding of the country. She explains that while deregulation can be beneficial, it must be accompanied by increased oversight to prevent crises. People tend to forget the lessons of the past and take more risks when other people's money is at stake. The reserve requirement is meant to protect against liquidity crises, but if the demand for deposits continues, banks can still become insolvent and taxpayers must pay the price.

Michael Pento believes that the Fed's rapid rate increases have caused a banking crisis, and that the Fed's actions have created an artificial construct that will lead to a deflationary recession/depression followed by runaway inflation. He predicts a 30-50% drop in equity averages and suggests investors play it safe by collecting dividends in a safe manner.

John Rubino is concerned that automation and government debt will lead to a collapse of the current system, and suggests that people should move their money into assets that cannot be inflated away. He also suggests shorting certain stocks and buying long-term options as a way to make money from the collapse. Kerry Lutz suggests using inverse ETFs and buying puts on the Housing Homebuilders ETF as other ways to make money. He also mentions a drug, Amg tide, that could help people with addictions to consumerism.

America just refuses to face reality and that means that the dollar will continue to lose value and more and more money will be tossed into the furnace. Politicians are much more willing to feed the inflation beast than they are to fix the underlying problem of out of control spending. And it's not a matter of parties. It's matter of always taking the easy way out. After all, in current day America, a politician's primary responsibility is to get reelected every 2-4-6 years  Until that changes, nothing else will change.

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