Houston we have a problem. Chinese and Hong Kong banks are running out of dollars. But I thought we had too many of them floating around the world. Guess not. There's plenty more where they came from. It's just another example of the glue that holds together the world financial system coming apart at the seams. First it was the staid repo market. Now it's foreign banks running out of the reserve currency. As Martin Armstrong often explains, 70% of the 100 dollar bills in circulation are held overseas. So much for the immediate demise of the reserve currency. 

Special shout-out to my son-in-law's father, John Kirby, who passed on last week. A prince among men and one of those important people you've never heard of. 

Direct download: John_Rubino_07.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

Leftist conspiracy-monger Adam Schiff was aware of select details of the Ukraine-Biden allegations against President Trump before a lying CIA snitch reportedly involved in the case filed a complaint under a whistleblower law, according to the intermittently reliable New York Times. It has been widely reported that the CIA official’s complaint was based on a July 25 telephone conversation between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the said stoolie somehow learned about. Trump stands accused by Democrats without any credible evidence whatsoever of trying to muscle the government of Ukraine into investigating a potential 2020 opponent, Joe Biden, in order to discredit his campaign. This, of course, is the exact opposite of what actually happened.

Direct download: Matthew_Vadum_07.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

Emerging markets have had their own impeachment episodes in the likes of South Korea, South Africa and Brazil. Amid mounting talk of the potential impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump, one analyst said investors may want to look abroad to gain insight into the market implications of presidential impeachments.
Craig Botham, senior emerging markets economist at U.K. asset manager Schroders, said one problem with studying how markets responded to a presidential impeachment was the lack of data, as the U.S. having seen only one successful impeachment out of four attempts. Wall Street could therefore supplement their research with case studies from emerging markets such as South Korea and Brazil, whose heads of state have been ousted in the past decade.
Investors are in a tizzy over what impeachments have historically spelled for Wall Street, after House Democrats opened up an impeachment inquiry against U.S. President Donald Trump. A whistleblower complaint accused Trump of withholding military aid to the Ukraine to pressure it into investigating former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden’s dealings with Ukraine.
Yet even a larger data set that encompassed examples in emerging markets did not yield any easy conclusions, said Botham, citing a paper he wrote on the topic in 2017.
“In general, there is no direction basically. A priori you cannot say impeachment is going to be good or bad for markets,” said Botham.
But he added impeachment could set off prolonged periods of heightened market volatility.
In the table below, he shows that major stock-market benchmarks tended to show outsized moves during impeachment proceedings. During the impeachment investigations into Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, annualized volatility for the S&P 500 (SPX) with historical levels.
Botham cautioned, however, that even if impeachment sagas do “make markets more skittish, but it can be hard to disentangle with the events of the day.”
For example, impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton coincided with a surge in volatility in stock and bond markets, overlapping with the Russian debt crisis and the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. It was therefore unclear if the market jitters were sparked by political uncertainty or heightened global economic growth concerns.
Another lesson that could be gleaned from previous impeachment proceedings was that the market impact was often tied to expectations of policy change. If a new head of state didn’t break away from past policies, speculation of a looming impeachment was unlikely to spur turbulent trading in markets.
“The first question you ask is how likely is impeachment anyway? The second question is what does it change relative to market expectations compared with policy,” said Botham.
In Brazil’s case, President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment was eagerly awaited by investors as her successor, Michel Temer, was considered a more business-friendly candidate who would reform a sclerotic public pension system, and shift the country away from left-wing populist policies that had been blamed for bringing Brazil’s public finances to its knees.
Yet in South Korea, market volatility was suppressed during Park Geun Hye’s impeachment in part because there was “less anticipation of a big change in economic policy,” said Botham.
As for the U.S., investors may not react much to Trump’s impeachment inquiry as both Republican and Democrats have a mutual desire for a more confrontational approach with China’s trade practices.
In the outside chance there was a change of Presidency, Botham said Trump’s successor may pursue a more conciliatory approach to the U.S’s major trading partners, who may share similar grievances against Beijing and may be willing to form a united front against China.
“If markets do move on the impeachment talk, people might start to price in a better trade-related outcome for the EU and NAFTA countries,” said Botham.

Direct download: John_Grace_03.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

The recent economic numbers are starting to have a decidedly negative bent to them. Manufacturing is down, the stock market is heading down and nobody knows where it will stop. Trump has been haranguing the Fed to rapidly lower rates and now it appears that he'll have his wish. Another rate cut is in the offing. Will we go totally negative or just hit zero? That's the question. 

Direct download: John_Rubino_03.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

David Erfle is extremely encouraged about the recent price movements of the yellow metal. He believes it was due for a breather and it appears to be getting one. After all, the tree does not grow to the sky. $1450 has become support and $1550 has become resistance. Probably later in the year, late Q4, he expects to see a resumption of the bull move and that it's anyone's guess where it will wind up. 

Direct download: David_Erfle_02.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

In what looks like another trade-deal victory for the Trump Administration, Apple announced on Monday that it would manufacture its Mac Pro Desktop at a factory in Austin, Texas.

After the US government approved tariff waivers on 10 key components for the Mac Book Pro that the company sources from China.

"Manufacturing of the new model was made possible after the US government approved on Friday Apple’s request for a waiver on 25% tariffs on 10 key components imported from China."

Some analysts have warned that key components will still be made in China and exported to the US for final assembly in Austin, but the number of components for the new desktop increased by 2.5 times from the previous model.

In an interesting about-face for Trump, the president had previously signaled that he wouldn't grant the waivers, but has apparently decided to cave. We imagine the softening in his approach is related to the tit-for-tat pre-trade-talk detente going on new between Washington and Beijing.

Trump had previously signaled that relief from tariffs on the Mac Pro would be rejected, saying in a July 26 tweet that “Apple will not be given Tariff waiver, or relief for." Mac Pro parts that are made in China. Make them in the USA, no Tariffs!" However, the president later told reporters that the two families “we’ll work it out.”

Still, with five other requests pending before the DoC, Apple has plenty of reason to be anxious. So far, Cook has been spared from most duties. But products such as the Apple Watch, AirPods and iMac computers were hit by 15% tariffs earlier this month, while the iPhone, iPad and other major Apple products are set to be impacted later in December.

Apple said construction for the new desktop will begin "soon," which roughly equates to: "Before the holiday shopping season ends." Meanwhile, the revamped model was announced in June at the company’s annual conference for developers, with a starting price of $6,000. Compared with the previous version, the new model is far more customizable and integrates with a new high-resolution external monitor.

TG Watkins was first exposed to the stock market when his dad brought him to a two day seminar when he was just 12 years old.

Direct download: TG_Watkins_03.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

The current low rate environment is creating malinvestment and economic anomalies wherever you look. From 8-9 year auto loans, to distorted real estate markets, it's all over the economic landscape. The cure is coming and it may well be worse than the disease, at first anyway. Transitions to new economic systems are always disruptive and often unpleasant. But change is coming and you can either go with it and prosper or go down fighting it. The choice is yours.

Direct download: Danielle_Park_01.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

Reclaiming Common Sense: Finding Truth in a Post-Truth World is the one book every American patriot should read - both Democrat and Republican. Robert Curry's new follow-up to the great "Common Sense Nation" is an urgent reminder that we all need to rethink our positions in the 21st Century and know our history.

Direct download: Robert_Curry_30.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

Stock markets continued their upward trajectory in September with DJIA up almost 2%. Dollar was way up getting to 99.4. Euro down to 109. Bitcoin crashed to 8625. Metals were down with gold losing 3.3% and silver losing 17.4%. Palladium shot up to 1655. WTI down 2%. Uranium basically flat. Pt to Pd at an all time low of .53. Gold to silver back up to 86.7. Till next month!

DJIA 9/30/19            26917 1.90%
S&P 500 9/30/19              2977 1.70%
NASDAQ 9/30/19              7999 0.50%
RUS 2000 9/30/19              1523 1.90%
TSX 9/30/19            16659 1.30%
TSX.V 9/30/19 559 -5.10%
MCSI 9/30/19              1001 1.10%
VIX 9/30/19 16.24  
DXY 9/30/19 99.4 0.50%
EURO 9/30/19 109 -0.80%
10 Year 9/30/19 1.68 12.00%
Bitcoin 9/30/19 8625 -13.50%
Au 9/30/19 1472 -3.30%
Ag 9/30/19 16.97 -17.40%
Pt 9/30/19 879 -16.50%
Pd 9/30/19 1655 9.20%
Cu 9/30/19 2.59 1.10%
WTI 9/30/19 54.07 -1.90%
Brent 9/30/19 60.78 -0.60%
Henry Hub 9/30/19 2.33 1.70%
U308 9/30/19 25.5 0.58%
Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd
  86.7 0.6 0.53
Direct download: Mickey_Fulp_01.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

The Repo Market has been distressed for two weeks now. The Fed keeps on injecting more money to keep it liquid. Why? They're just going to have to keep on doing it until something else happens.

Don't impeachment. It's not going anywhere. And it can't. But that's not going to stop Pelosi and the wicked out Squad. Humiliation is there's.

State pension funds going bust. 10 are good. Another 12 are okay and the rest are toast, especially NJ, Kentucky, Illinois and 7 others.

Direct download: TLR_473.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

On October 26-27 Jason Hartman will be holding another Profits in Paradise in Orlando Florida. This is must see event. Along with Jason's usual all-star cast of guests, he'll be introducing new opportunities for new and current investors. The future of turn-key cash-flowing single family homes has never been brighter. We are giving away 2 pairs of tickets to the 3rd and 6th email respondents. So write us soon at kl@kerrylutz.com. Otherwise go to JasonHartman.com and sign up now! See you in Orlando. 

Direct download: Jason_Hartman_01.Oct.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:00pm EST

The nation's trial lawyers are in control and protecting you from harmful vaping companies like Juul. No matter that 8 million people have quit smoking using this device. I guess they'd be better off smoking tobacco, after all you might only get lung cancer. 

And the Trump Impeachment saga gets a new lease on life. Thank you all whistleblowers. We hear you!

Direct download: James_Hirsen_27.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

The Fed pumps another $75 billion into markets — its 3rd straight daily injection.The Federal Reserve jumped into financial markets for a third straight day on Thursday in another attempt to keep interest rates from moving higher.The central bank has injected a total of $203 billion into markets this week — $75 billion on both Wednesday and Thursday, and $53 billion on Tuesday.

This week marked the first time the central bank has taken such steps since the global financial crisis 10 years ago. Visit the Markets Insider homepage for more stories. The Federal Reserve jumped into financial markets for a third straight day on Thursday in another attempt to keep interest rates from moving higher. The New York Federal Reserve said late Wednesday that it would inject another $75 billion into the market on Thursday to keep the federal funds rate within its target range. Short-term rates had earlier this week shot up as high as 10%, threatening to disrupt the bond market and the overall lending system. When will we return to the way things used to be?

Direct download: Al_Caciedo_25.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

Charles Nenner has been calling for higher gold/precious metals prices for a while now. The market has finally caught up with his forecast. Gold will start rising again next year and eventually hit the $2500 mark. Look for a much more volatile VIX index, lower energy and food prices and a hastening of the deflationary trend. Strong dollar, low rates and higher bond prices. It's going to get interesting real soon, real fast. For more go to www. FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com.

Direct download: Charles_Nenner_25.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

Kevin Price says, "So you have read Four Hour Work Week, The E Myth Revisited, and Rich Dad Poor Dad, but have little to show for it but a good read. Kevin Price, host of the nationally syndicated Price of Business radio show, explains why this happens and what one can do about it in his compelling book, Making New Rich Books work for You. It is based entirely on his own struggles."

Robert Kiyosaki author of the mega bestselling "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and frequent guest on the Price of Business says the following about Price's show “The world is changing too fast to be listening to people who have no idea what they’re talking about, so listen to Kevin Price. He’s into real financial education.”

Price argues the problem is not with the books people read, but the mindset of the reader. The way the reader thinks and even feels about money is often sabotaging them before taking any action.

Direct download: Kevin_Price_24.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

Since debt was created, the Repo Man was there to handle defaulting debtors. There's a new Repo Man in town and that's the Federal Reserve. They are there to turn bank's paper into cash and bank's cash into paper. Since 1917, it all worked very well except for a few noteworthy events, like 9/11 and 2008, when the markets seized up. Now it's happening again. Why is there no liquidity? Where did all the buyers go? Michael Pento understands where the economy is headed, but he believes you should be earning an attractive return until the last domino falls. And what's wrong with that? 

Direct download: Michael_Pento_24.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

The usually staid Repo (repurchase agreement) market was anything but staid last week, with rates rising from 2.25% to 10% literally overnight. For those of you not in the know, banks will sell off their treasuries and other triple AAA government securities to others for one or two nights in exchange for cash. Then, if all goes well, which it almost always, does except in 2001 and 2008, the transaction automatically unwinds in 24 to 48 hours. It's a mainstay of the financial system. The fact that rates shot up the way they did less than a day could mean a large bank is underwater and was unable to repurchase their securities or the collateral was pledged to several lenders or something equally as bizarre. Either way, it could well be a canary in a coal mine moment for the global financial system.

In other news, we propose a very simple and likely scenario for the Whistleblower kerfuffle. It all comes down to orange man bad. He set the whole thing up to expose a couple leakers including Adam Shiffty and to get the Biden scandal out in the open where the press would be forced to cover it. And as usual they fell for it. Will the media ever learn? No, it's against their nature.

Direct download: TLR_472_24.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

Otis Gold Corp. has been acquiring & developing high quality precious metal deposits in the Western USA. Its flagship Kilgore Project is in Idaho. Agnico Eagle is a key strategic investor.  Its preliminary economic assessment for Kilgore revealed a rich IRR at over 50%.

We discussed Otis's prospects with CEO Craig Lindsay and head geologist Alan Roberts and why they're so upbeat about its future.

CEO Craig Lindsay worked for 20 plus years in finance, investment banking and business development. He was CEO of Magnum Uranium Corp. and handled its sale to Energy Fuels Inc. (TSX:  EFR) in July 2009.

Alan Roberts has over 25 years global experience at various exploration and resource development around the globe. He's highly credentialed and was bitten by the mining bug at an early age. He's particularly excited about the prospects of making the Kilgore Project into a mining district and very much believes in its potential. 

Direct download: Otis_Gold_Live_Interview_Denver.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

Trayvon Martins life came to an unfortunate early end. But the hoax about his death has lived on. Until now. Moviemaker Joel Gilbert has blown the lid off of corrupt prosecutors, opportunistic race baiters and a complicit media. While the trial exonerated George Zimmerman from criminal culpability in the case, race hustlers like the Rev. Al Sharpton and attorney Benjamin Crump fielded a false witness and completely divided the nation in the process. Race relations have been straight down hill ever since. See the movie with the link below. 

Now on Amazon Prime Video: 

Amazon Prime – The Trayvon Hoax

Direct download: Joel_Gilbert_23.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST

Debt keeps on increasing at increasing rates. That should be good news for the repo market. And yet, Fed's Repo man is in a quandary. How could chaos reign in a stodgy market that's been around since 1917. The premise is simple. Buy securities to loosen liquidity. Sell securities to tighten liquidity. But Houston, we have a problem. This market broke down and no one has really explained why. That's what happens in an over indebted society. Markets breakdown, almost at random. 

Direct download: John_Rubino_23.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

No man ever entered the Presidency so profoundly and widely distrusted. ”A rich, New Yorker who never held an elected position in his life was thrust into the highest office in America: President of the United States. Because of his background in machine politics, the country groaned when he became president—expecting him to fail. Instead, he surprised them all by reforming deep-set corruption in The Swamp. It’s probably not the president you think it was. In Chester A. Arthur: The Accidental President (Regnery History; September 17, 2019; $29.99), John M. Pafford paints the portrait of how the unlikeliest man to become president unexpectedly rose to the occasion and lead America in its first steps to becoming a world power. There’s lots of parallels between now and then and we discuss them in depth. Probably the first in a series by John that will cover what were thought to be inconsequential POTUSES. 

Direct download: John_M._Pafford_19.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:09pm EST

It’s not just the change that gets you, but the change in the changes. People don’t get what’s happening. Mass bird die off. People demanding a green new deal that they don’t really want. Imagine a world with no planes and autos. But what is obvious is that the chaos quotient is getting higher. You just have to look around and you'll see what's really going on. 

Direct download: Chris_Martenson_23.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:08pm EST

The Fed did it again, cutting rates another 25 basis points. Jim believes they’re cutting to head off poor economic news. If the news doesn’t come, then Jim believes they won’t cut at the next meeting. The Fed has some wiggle room. Perhaps it’s a move to keep the dollar from going higher to help exports. Reasonableness is no longer a factor in any discussions or actions about the economy. Maybe that will change. 

Direct download: Jim_Welsh_19.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

Paul Gibbons is a fellow podcaster using science and philosophy to further his audience's knowledge. He's opinionated and very secure in his beliefs, but that doesn't mean he's not open-minded. He's willing to look at the facts and change his opinion when required. We talked about why media figures on the right succeed while those on the left fail. As I stated, "It's not the message, it's the messenger." People connect with their favorite media figures and may or may not buy into their message. Paul, unlike most of his political grouping, acknowledges that Donald Trump is a genius of messaging and connecting with his followers. We could all learn a lot from POTUS 45 in that regard. 

Direct download: Paul_Gibbons_18.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00am EST

Heye Daun has over 20 years experience working in mining and finance. His two most recents forays resulted in discoveries, company sales and big profits for shareholders. Could the third time be the real charm? Heye and his team are advancing yet another successful mining venture, Osino Resources, which just-released highly encouraging drill results that show evidence of a very significant gold discovery.  

Heye was born to a ranching family in Namibia. Career-wise he had a choice: ranching or mining. He opted for the latter and in retrospect he made the right decision. So far Osino is 4 for 4 in its drill campaign. That's right, all their drill holes have come up positive and they're waiting on the results for the last 3. Being young and ambitious, Heye has many new discoveries ahead. We'll be watching closely. 

Direct download: Heye_Daun_17.Sep.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:01am EST





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