Tue, 13 March 2018
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is warning of an upcoming banking crisis in numerous countries. But we're all really in it together. Where goes one, goes all. From a risk management perspective it's a disaster waiting to happen. This time really is different. The longer it goes on, the more false confidence and the greater the eventual crash will be. Stay tuned! |
Mon, 12 March 2018
Martin Armstrong is still bullish on the stock market. Europe is still in trouble. Draghi isn't abandoning QE so quickly. He's trapped and so is the Euro. There's a big bet against the Euro taking place as witnessed by the German Bund spreads. There's a huge crisis in the offing. And it's worldwide, the US and Europe and elsewhere. They need a minimum return of 8% and there's few opportunities to get it. Forget government bonds, they're a guaranteed loser. The ECB owns more than 40 percent of all government debt. Therefore, it's impossible to cover future pension debt. Compared to the ECB, the Fed looks like it knows what it's doing. |
Mon, 12 March 2018
The bull market is turning 9 years old. Had we known we would have baked a cake. It is now the longest running bull market in history! What could possibly go wrong. The tree will surely grow to the sky. And as if that wasn't enough, corporate debt levels are surging. But don't worry, this time is really different because it's not being held by big banks, ETF's and pension funds will be left holding the bag. But everything will work out fine, nothing can go wrong, go wrong, go wrong. |
Mon, 12 March 2018
Live every day as if it would be your last, for one day you're sure to be right. This is my all-time favorite quote from the classic movie Breaker Morant. Our schedule for the next week or two will be sporadic. My sister is in hospice now, her days are few. Grieving can be an incredible learning process and can be quite liberating. For one thing, it puts things in perspective. How can we be upset over minor disturbances in life, especially when we consider how short our lives truly are? We really don't have time for it. The time to find peace in your life is now! When the people you love get to this point, you realize the absolute triviality of so many of life's events, the pointlessness of petty resentments and much of our anger. The time is always now and there's always a reason you need to trudge on, regardless of how hopeless things may seem. Thanks to all of you for your thoughts and prayers. |
Thu, 8 March 2018
The market is setting up now for incredibly profitable trades is on its way. March, historically is a volatile and pivotal month. Big turning points always happening during this month. And let's for the Vernal Equinox is just ahead on March 20, always a key date. Fed announcement coming March 21. Heads up. |
Wed, 7 March 2018
Raghee Horner believes that there's huge profits to be made trading the energy sector. A lot is going on there. The U.S. will overtake Russia to become the world’s largest oil producer by 2023, accounting for most of the global growth in petroleum supplies, a top industry monitor said Monday. U.S. crude production is expected to reach a record of 12.1 million barrels a day in 2023, up about 2 million barrels a day from this year, said the International Energy Agency, which advises governments and corporations on industry trends. American oil output will surge past Russia, currently the world’s largest crude producer at about 11 million barrels a day. The IEA’s closely watched five-year forecast showed the U.S. hitting new strides in its oil and gas boom, helped by technological advances, improved efficiency and a fragile recovery in oil prices that is encouraging shale companies to ramp up their drilling. Once heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East, the U.S. is getting closer to achieving its goal of producing enough crude to meet domestic demand for refined products like gasoline. Of the 6.4 million new barrels of oil that will be pumped every day between now and 2023, almost 60% will come from the U.S., the IEA said. American influence on global oil markets is also expected to rise, with U.S. oil exports more than doubling to 4.9 million barrels a day by 2023, according to the IEA. Until 2015, the U.S. didn’t export any crude oil by law, but in five years it is expected to be among the world’s biggest exporters. |
Wed, 7 March 2018
President Trump's recent imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs will have unforeseen consequences. Are subsidies the preferred method of addressing the issue of these declining industries? John believes that a trade ware will endanger the economic recovery. A better move for these workers to do a big infrastructure program to put these rust belt residents back to work. What do we do to shut off that giant sucking sound of American jobs heading to Mexico? The tax bill will cost the Republicans some seats in the house come the mid-terms, however, it's a real plus for the economy. Will steady wage increases be the result? Let's wait and see. And John recounts the Fight of the Century, the first Ali-Fraizer fight. |
Wed, 7 March 2018
The Trump tax plan is already showing benefits. Companies are bringing jobs back to the US. This should result in higher productivity and therefore higher wages, which will no doubt lead to higher consumer prices. In fact, we're already seeing that happen. Regulatory roll-back is well underway. Dodd-Frank will be receiving a long awaited overhaul, something both parties have agreed upon. The stock market is an open question and it remains to be seen where it will go in the next few years. |
Tue, 6 March 2018
Lew Weiss is critical of the Trump trade tariffs on steel and aluminum. US trade policy needs a more considered and thought out approach. Prison labor cannot solve the problem. Rather, Lew believes that government policies that encourage American manufacturers to export are the answer. Exportation of products is often a daunting challenge for even the most experienced exporters such as Boeing. For a small company it's often insurmountable. Bringing back tax favored status for exporters would be a real plus and an immediate shot in the arm. |
Tue, 6 March 2018
In "Killing the Deep State," Corsi unmasks the powerful players who pull the real strings in Washington, proving it makes no difference proving that no matter who you voted for, who sits in the Oval Office or who controls Congress. Barack Obama's ties to the Deep State and how he continues to "pull strings" and orchestrate efforts to undermine the President Trump at every turn. How Deep State operatives turned FBI director James Comey's firing and the Robert Muller probe into a Trump hunting expedition with "with virtually unlimited scope, unlimited completion deadline, and unlimited funding." Bombshell evidence that the Russians were not involved in accessing the emails of John Podesta, chairman of the 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential campaign. The identity of the U.S.-based terror group spearheading anti-Trump efforts - an evil group that equates law enforcement with fascism and racism, yet is championed by the mainstream media. |
Tue, 6 March 2018
Marc Morano says there's plenty of polar bears and their number has actually been increasing. Marc is much more concerned by less freedom. More regulation. Higher costs. Make no mistake: those are the surefire consequences of the modern global warming campaign waged by political and cultural elites, who have long ago abandoned fact-based science for dramatic fearmongering in order to push increased central planning. The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change gives a voice -- backed by statistics, real-life stories, and incontrovertible evidence -- to the millions of "deplorable" Americans skeptical about the multibillion dollar "climate change" complex, whose claims have time and time again been proven wrong. |
Mon, 5 March 2018
According to Jordan, bond yields are the key. Gold has been going up with long term bond yields. As they've gone up, so has gold. Just like gold, long term bond yields are set to break out. All the requirements for a major metals advance are in place. It just requires a little time and a catalytic event. Maybe it's a major increase in inflation, higher bond yields or any other number of factors. Then the move we've all been waiting for will take place. |
Mon, 5 March 2018
Are trade wars coming? Last week Trump announced tariffs on Steel and Aluminum which promptly sent the markets reeling. Today, he announced that the tariffs would remain in place until NAFTA is renegotiated. Can you spell Art of the Deal? Is it part of China's attempt at world domination? Next, the Italian elections resulted in upheaval. The anti-immigration party got more votes than the incumbent party. If they're able to create a government, it could mean Italy's Brexit. |
Mon, 5 March 2018
As with all laws, the new Tax Bill has unanticipated results, especially if you're a Baby Boomer. Some of the money will go back to productive assets and investment. Boards will be under pressure to put cash to work to achieve a higher rate of return. Baby boomers who are retiring at the rate of 10k per day will be positively affected, if they're invested in equities. The equities bull market will be prolonged. Since many Boomers will be living well into their 90's, traditional investment planning has to change. That could very well mean taking more risks to achieve a higher return. But it will come at a cost. |
Fri, 2 March 2018
Mickey Fulp observed that February 2018 saw volatility go from record lows to major new highs! Major US stock markets corrected big Ly with the DJIA up losing 4%. Emerging markets were down 3%. TSX down 3% and TSX-V 4%. Bitcoin the always volatile digital currency it was down 2% for the month. Gold was down 2% and Silver was off 5% for the month. Pt down 2% and Pd was up 1%. Copper down 2.5%. Energy also corrected, with WTI and Brent both down around 5%. Natgas skidded 14% to $2.73. Uranium declined 1%. Currencies saw the Greenback rise 1.7% and the Euro lost 1.7%. Rate on the 10 year T Bond hit 2.87%. As for ratios Gold to Silver hit 80, which usually is a buy signal for the shiny metal. Tilll next month! |
Wed, 28 February 2018
Interest rates are going up and this could mean that stocks, housing and economies could be going down. Debt keeps going up and how much longer can the world continue on? The world cannot take higher rates. The party is ending. In February markets starting going down and it was attributed to rising wages. However, when we look behind the headlines we see that supervisory wages were up most and regular laborers saw smaller increases. Housing is taking a hit. Sales are down and inventories are at normal levels. Any decrease will immediately be affected in lower prices. |
Wed, 28 February 2018
Safeguard tariffs imposed by President Trump on imported solar cells and panels have been in effect for just over a week, but already we’re seeing moves to boost U.S. solar production in response. No fewer than nine solar manufacturing companies are planning to launch or expand solar manufacturing in the U.S., according to our latest information. This is great news for the U.S. solar industry, because it shows that tariffs can produce the intended effect of boosting a U.S. industry, and, with it, jobs, research and development. It further suggests the U.S. has the opportunity to regain its leadership position in this critical industry. |
Wed, 28 February 2018
Major Scott A. Huesing came on to share his harrowing experiences in the Middle East as described in his book, Echo in Ramadi: The Firsthand Story of U.S. Marines in Iraq’s Deadliest City. His gripping and deeply personal account of modern urban combat of leading 250 men through Ramadi, Iraq, from 2006-2007. He and his group of Marines from Echo Company fought daily in dangerous, dense city streets during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Bound together by brotherhood, honor, and the horror they faced, Echo’s Marines battled on the frontline of a totally different kind of war – one without rules. Huesing brings these resilient, resolute young men to life and shows how the savagery of urban combat left indelible scars on their bodies, psyches, and souls. Transparently told by the man who endured them, Echo in Ramadi includes action-packed and heart-wrenching stories of: - The chaotic skirmishes where the frontline was everywhere, and their enemy wore no uniform - His recurring agony over the deaths of his Marines, and the heart-wrenching phone calls he had to make to their families - The selfless love of Gold Star families toward their son’s surviving comrades - His battle to overcome PTS in the years following his service |
Wed, 28 February 2018
We all know that the government wastes tremendous sums of money on useless programs that do no good whatsoever. But the real crime according to John and the Austrian School of Economics is the lost opportunity cost of the misspent money to society. Every dollar spent by government is one dollar that cannot be profitably invested in the private economy. This isn't a new problem. George Washington bemoaned the fact that government always got ripped off by military vendors. The more things change... But where would we be if government spending were just half of what it is today? By some estimates our economy would be nearly triple its size if we had skipped Johnson's Great Society programs. |
Tue, 27 February 2018
While it might be more personally satisfying and will always strengthen your integrity, let's face the facts, lying is more profitable than telling the truth. The dishonesty is rampant at all levels of society, whether it's Democrats assuring voters that Social Security isn't really bankrupt or a car dealer leasing you a vehicle that you can't afford to buy. Imagine if Aaron started telling his a**hole consulting clients lies, he'd have them lined up around the block. But alas, eventually the truth will win out and then where will you find yourself? |
Tue, 27 February 2018
It's no secret that the US debt has gone exponential, much like the stock market. While Donald Trump may be an expert in corporate bankruptcy, he's never taken a country through Chapter 11 before. But it sure looks like he's going to get his chance, sooner rather than later. Which is why precious metals are still a good idea, especially because of the apathetic response they're currently receiving. |
Tue, 27 February 2018
Bill Tatro joined us to talk about common investment fallacies. A major one is that if you're behind on your investment goals you should try to catch up by placing bets in safe exotic derivatives. Bill recounts the story of a fellow party-goer who just lost his shirt shorting the VIX. The Volatility Index is much like NATGAS futures, it's a widow maker. Which confirms that old Wall Street saw, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." |
Mon, 26 February 2018
Fed chairmen/chairwomen will come and go but the Fed is the Fed. That's why the real underlying policy has not changed with Yellen's replacement by Powell. And it won't change. The small stick is getting ever smaller, namely interest rate manipulation and money printing. The bubbles will keep on coming, whether it's Bitcoin or the stock market. Promises that were made cannot be kept, whether it's pensions or social security or medicare. A surefire prescription for chaos. |
Mon, 26 February 2018
As expected, the Fed has announced that it's going to be more lenient towards the inflation rate. We're not too surprised about this turn of affairs. In fact, we've been expecting it for some time. That means a slow down in rate hikes and probably a weakening dollar and lower rates than the market has been anticipating. But that's how the system works. And finally, China is abolishing term limits for the president. Where have we heard that one before? |
Mon, 26 February 2018
When it comes to investing, the rich truly are different than you and I. One of the ways they excel, while the rest achieve mediocre returns, is through their informal high net worth investment networks. These are groups of successful wealthy people who connect with similar people, allowing them access to special high yielding low risk deals. Buck has figured out how to do it himself and he shows you how to do it too. Once you really start thinking about your investment choices, things will never be the same. |