1. The consumer Confidence Index was up for consumers 5 +but down for 34-54.

2. The revisions for the previous month were down not up. The downward revisions of previous months data ni other metrics such as jobs and housing and CPI and MPI se em ot be a trend in itself.

3. LEI for the U.S. Declines again ni October. Contracting by 3.3 %over six months.

4. Most of the major LEI contributed negatively ot the LEI in October.

A. NewOrders - 2

B . Average weekly initial claims - 18

C . Building Permits Private Housing -.14

D . Interest Rate Spread, -85%(10yr./FedFunds)

The consumer resilience that is reflected in some of the data that is meaningful doesn't line up with what I see in person with conversations while traveling to main street America.

 The consumer is just starting to feel the reality as the cost of inflation and higher interest rates is hitting home. The dwindling savings of both the consumer and commercial savings accounts is seen in the data but is just starting to be felt.

The Fed can't be the buyer of last resort of al unsold treasuries very much longer. January/ February of 2024 should be interesting for all involved. Expect the consumer confidence to begin a sharp reversal beginning in late December and accelerating through the first quarter as the data lines up with the markets and reality.


Direct download: Russell_Stone_30.Nov.23.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:00am EST






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