Recession Risk Is Still Present -- James Locke #5865

PMI Report (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index)

measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector

Past few months we have seen the numbers in line or under expectations
Last week it was above for the first time since April
Another number will be reported tomorrow
ALL values are still negative, even if they are not as negative as initially thought.

Everyone is Bullish and it is scary!

Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson finally capitulated and apologized for getting the market wrong the last nine months. (He is a huge bear mkt guy) from 3500-4400

When the Street’s most bearish strategist turns bullish, does that mean the market is due for a correction? YES!

Time to get short.

Last year people were adding on to TBill positions.
This Year, everyone YOLOed into tech stock and out of TBills
Right on market highs.
You could not have scripted this any better.

Between strategists apologizing and people YOLOing into tech stocks, I think it’s time to book whatever gains we have and move to the sidelines.

Lets put a baseline correction of 10-12% And it could get worse.

All I know is that all the conditions are in place for a correction of some magnitude. And it will take a lot of people by surprise, as these things usually do.

Word of advice: sell when you can, not when you have to.
Never confuse brains with a bull market. When we start to hear of plumbers quitting their jobs and getting into day trading… again. They made a lot of money off TSLA and think that is a repeatable strategy. Here we go again.  We all remember that in the 90s, but I guess not everyone does.

We can talk about how interest rates are over 5%, how there is a war in Europe, how there is the persistent threat of inflation, how richly valued the stock market is—none of it matters. These are the sorts of things that people like us talk about on media shows.  People may hear us, but are they listening?

You want to know where the market is going? Don’t follow the smart money; follow the dumb money. – I use that term loosely, because the pain will be real.

 

Inflation is 3%

The tomb is sealed, and we don’t even realize it yet.

Bottoms are made on panic. Tops are made on euphoria. In October, we were fearing hyperinflation. Now there is open discussion about deflation.

The truth is always somewhere in between.

We went from believing that inflation was undefeated to defeated in nine months. Over that time, the stock market has rallied over 20%. There is a lot of complacency out there. It’s the summer, people are having a good time, and they don’t see the need to hedge. People aren’t doing a lot of thinking about how to insure against a downturn.

Mind you, I’m not talking about a crash—I would never call for a crash—I’m just saying that a sharp correction is highly likely, and it is going to catch a lot of people offside.

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