Kerry Lutz's--Financial Survival Network

Summary:
Markets have been extremely volatile, and pressing questions about the future of the economy linger. Will inflation and negative GDP print decline? Furthermore, how will these factors affect you and your investments? Jim Welsh appears on this episode of FSN to inform us about what to expect in consideration of the role that the Fed will play over the next couple of months. We’re seeing increases in gas and oil, wage growth that does not mirror the progression of inflation, and depletion of supplies in the energy sector. Listen in for more insight on the mayhem of the markets, and scenarios for the foreseeable future.

Highlights:
-Jim was expecting a 10-15% pullback going into this year, accounting for trends in the S&P
-We’ve had the pullback from the highs, but the S&P needs to punch about 4200 to open the door for higher prices
-The Fed is at an interesting juncture that will play a role over the next few months
-Interest rate increases have adversely affected the economy, housing, etc.
-Consumers still have over $2 trillion worth of savings, but the bottom 20% of wage earners spend 70-75% of their disposable income
-The squeeze is already intense, and this is going to continue
-Wage growth (about 5-6%) is not parallel with inflation
-The Fed is trying to prevent the markets from getting ahead of them, which contributes to their decision making
-The increase in gas and oil in May will contribute a lot to inflation
-As they raise rates more, the economy will show signs of slowing in the next few months
-The Fed has started to shrink its balance sheet, which has not been paid attention to closely
-Jim thinks we may be on the cusp of a 15-20 year bear market; a lot of issues that have been building up with the US economy will most likely come to a head
-Is inflation down-ticking enough to give people on the Federal Reserve confidence that inflation is going to trend downwards?
-Gold needs to hold recent lows to make another run above 1900s
-When volatility increases, the relation between sectors moves upwards towards 1
-We need to see a break in oil, and subsequently, in gasoline prices
-We should be focusing on the price of natural gas rather than oil
-We’re depleting supplies that, in the past, would have gone to other domestic needs
-There is a floor underneath Natgas prices

Useful Links:
Financial Survival Network
Macro Tides

Summary:
With many losses in the stock market over the last few months, many investors are in search of alternatives for cash flow. Fred Moskowitz comes on the show to talk about alternative investing methods, focusing on note investing—an oftentimes overlooked asset within the real estate market. Fred shares his expert insight on how to get into this realm of investing, some of its benefits, and pointers for when/how to buy notes. Be sure to tune in to this episode for an insider perspective of this alternative to the stock market, and you can use the link below to purchase Moskowitz’s The Little Green Book of Note Investing if you want to learn more.

Highlights:
-There have been losses in the stock market over the last few months, and many investors are looking for alternatives
-For a fleeing stock market investor, there are a number of alternative investing methods
-It’s important to own assets that generate income for you, such as rental real estate. The government has incentives in place for owning these
-Owning mortgage notes is also a worthy venture; it gives a steady income component. They get bought and sold on the secondary market every day
-Owning a mortgage on a rental property gives a lot of downside protection. Another positive aspect is that you get paid while you wait
-Buying/starting a business allows you to be directly involved with the asset
-Buying properties based on future cash flow can be risky in an inflated market
-It’s beneficial to buy real estate if an opportunity appears with a cash flow that can cover your expenses
-If you buy real estate that is generating cash flow today and the property is covering itself, then it’s a safe option
-When it’s not ideal to buy, it’s good to educate yourself on real estate and take time to accrue knowledge
-Mortgage notes can be found by working with real estate investment groups and seeking out note investors
-Notes can also be acquired through creating contacts and networking within real estate
-Educating yourself before buying anything is also crucial
-Notes are traditionally sold for a discount
-Supply and demand impacts the pricing of notes, and some states have more demand for notes
-You can buy a portion of a note rather than the note in its entirety (i.e. buying a $10k slice of a note). This is helpful for getting started in note investing
-Fred’s book, The Little Green Book of Note Investing, gives an overview of note investing and provides tips, logistics, and how-to’s in this sector

Useful Links:
Financial Survival Network
Fred Moskowitz
The Little Green Book of Note Investing