Tue, 10 December 2019
Remember just a few months ago when repo rates went from 1 percent to 10 percent overnight. The Fed assured us that it was because of quarterly tax payments, or who knows may it was a YouTube video that caused the meltdown. Well, we speculated from the get go that it was one or more major banks going bust. We were close to the truth, at least according to the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) it was hedge funds hocking their treasuries to stay liquid. But the main funding big banks pulled the plug. Seems they were rattled by the sudden surge in demand and were trying to reign in their risk. But we're convinced this is only part of the story and the net result is still the same, QE3.5 or better is with us forever. |
Tue, 10 December 2019
Gold will resume its upward trajectory towards the end of Q1 2020. US stock market will not see a blow-off yet. Interest rates are not going up, they're going lower still. Starting middle of January long rates will be heading down. Unemployment will pick up next year and recession is likely. Oil longer term cycles are down, as low as $36 per barrel. Natgas hit it’s price target on the down side and we should see a bounce. Longer term we could $1.70. Dollar will stay in the range until beginning of next year and then go a bit higher. Real estate approaching a new high, but it's an intermediate one that will see prices go yet higher. Bonds, gold and silver are the investments for the coming year. |
