Charles Nenner is making several bold new calls. Dramatic declines are coming in the world's stock markets. The dollar is due for a minor short-lived decline but should remain stable over the next several years. Gold is going to $2500, oil is going down to the mid $30 range and NatGas will be declining to as low as $1.40 per million btu's. Lot's of volatility down the road. 

Direct download: Charles_Nenner_11.Jun.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:38pm EDT

Savings Rate Plunges As Consumer Spending Soars By Most In A Decade. After lagged (govt shutdown) and mixed performances in the last two months, income and spending growth was expected to rebound notably in March (despite a weak signal from within the GDP data) and while income growth was lower than expected (+0.1% MoM vs +0.4% MoM exp), spending exploded...

Personal Spending rose 0.9% MoM (well above the 0.7% expected) and the biggest rise since August 2009...On a year over year basis, spending has accelerated beyond income growth once again...On the income side, wages unchanged from last month on an annual basis:Private workers +4.4% Y/Y Govt Workers +3.0% Y/Y And as expected given the surge in spending, the savings rate collapsed from 7.3% to 6.5% - the lowest since November.<br>This is the biggest monthly drop in the savings rate since Jan 2013. At the same time the Core PCE Deflator is at its lowest since 2017...allowing 'goldilocks' narratives to flourish ahead of this week's FOMC.

Direct download: Al_Caceido_11.Jun.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:35pm EDT

Hard to believe but at least 25% of China's bank debt is worthless. And worse still, if there's a systemic crash, it could go a lot higher. But no one seems to be very concerned about it. After all the cure for bed debt is faster economic growth. But that's not happening either. Growth rates have plunged and could even be approaching negative territory. What's a poor central planner to do? 

Direct download: Danielle_Park_11.Jun.19.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:42pm EDT






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