Dec 12, 2019
Stock Market will be moving higher but not greatly so. Could be warning signs flashing in Q1 & Q2 of 2020.
Gold Q1 rally might not happen till February. A coupl of decent rallies in 2020 for gold, perhaps holding and waiting. No end of the year rally coming. Perhaps a minor rally in December from mid to late December, but no sticking power.
Oil Need a weekly close over $60 but otherwise the trend is still down, to around $46. It’s a multi-year trend taking place. OPEC is attempting to lower production and increase prices. Something negative could always his the market. Risk turns to the unexpected.
Interest Rates continue to decline to lower rates and then on to a new advance later. Long term cycles point to the middle of 2020 as the most likely time for the next significant top in rates. Between now Q2 we could see rates edge lower. In June/July 2020 there could be a significant reversal of the 30 year trend towards lower rates.
Dollar Confined to a tight trading range for the foreseeable future. Could see a decline in late December. Could see a more significant bottom in January/February. Not a necessarily a significant change in the trend. Still hasn’t recpatured its previous highs. Would need to see it break beneath the 94-95 level.