Mar 17, 2020
The current situation is similar to the height of Yellow Journalism, which brought on the Spanish American War. Less than 8,000 people worldwide who have died and of course those the numbers will go up. Only 200k people worldwide have the actual virus. Over 600k die annually from the flu, 500k in the US from smoking every year. And we’re shutting down the world. The economic damage will be profound. The bulk of the economy is small business and they’re not getting any bailout. Many of them will be pushed over the edge. Flu season takes place during cold weather, not warm. There’s empty hospital beds now in China and South Korea. The real question is will it reoccur next winter.
What about the damage to the stock market? Martin’s model shows the decline starting in January 2020. This crash will be a combination of 2008 nad 1998. This is what a liquidity crisis looks like. Same with the repo crisis, banks won’t lend to other banks. Europe is refusing to do any bailouts. This isn’t QE, it’s providing liquidity to a market that no one else will lend to.
Eventually the market will bounce. It will go to new highs in the years ahead. This is a lack of confidence in government. The worst thing the Fed could have done was cut rates to zero. It was all out of ammo and the markets called its bluff. The resulting decline undermined confidence the Fed and all of government. Similar to what caused the gold advance of the 1980’s. What's next, will we start tipping waiters in toilet paper?
This will eventually lead to a major advance in gold, not yet but it’s lurking out there. Negative interest rates won’t work. Look at Europe. They have to kill the market to save it.
Martin talks about his meeting with Trump at Mar a Lago. He commends Trump for having the ability to change his mind and change course. Trump still doesn’t know whom he will actually run against. We’re far better off with Trump than anyone else. We’re currently heading into a major monetary crisis. They never let a good crisis go to waste.
They’re pushing very hard to eliminate currency under the guise of preventing the Coronavirus and other diseases. The difference between the US and Europe, US currency issued since the founding is still legal tender. Europe cancels it’s currency at whim. They claim that this will end bank runs and eliminate cash hoarding, or so the thinking goes. Trump won’t go for it. What comes after Trump, who knows?
Stock Market will be in the doldrums for a while to come. We might go down the 1st week of April with a test of the 19,000 level. Big risk is going into the end of the quarter. There will be continued liquidation. Cash is king, regardless what Bridgewater has to say about it. The business cycle always wins. Eventually people will see that government doesn’t have the power to be Santa Claus to everyone. After the 1st week of April, things should calm down. Martin believes that the press should be investigated. A repeat of Hurst and Pulitzer in the early 1900's.
We’re heading back over 30,000 and the long term hasn’t changed. A test of 40,000 is likely by 2024 and by the time we end the cycle in 2032 the Dow could be 65,000. But what of the US Dollar