Nov 26, 2019
Last piece of fake good news? China trade deal coming? Not so fast. Phase 1 is the easy part. Bloomberg enters the presidential fray. Is he for real? Deval who? They’ve lost faith in Biden and they’re completely panic-stricken. Neither of these candidates has a prayer. They’ve jumped in very late and really can’t be taken as serious candidates. The idea of a Bernie candidacy has smoked them out.
New report out about divergences in the economy. Corporate share buybacks are down year over year. The CFO confidence survey is at the lowest level since 2009. Ratio of job openings to GDP, job offerings have plunged while GDP has not. Ratio of consumer confidence to the unemployment rate. This ratio usually peaks at the peak of the cycle. It’s at it’s cyclical high now. Central bank assets are raising much faster than the global gold supply, which implies that gold has to go up. It’s more true now than in the recent past. These divergences are all in the wrong direction.