May 17, 2023
Jim Welsh believes that the coming secular bear market has already begun and that it will be worse than the 1966-1982 period. He bases this on factors such as debt, demographics, and the risk of war. He believes that the economy will slow in the second half of 2021 and that the market will follow, leading to lower returns for investors. He suggests that investors take advantage of opportunities and be prepared for a hard landing.
Jim Welsh discussed the FOMC's plans to pause raising the funds rate, the tight labor market, and the potential for gold and treasury bonds to rally in the near future. He also discussed the potential for a recession and the global housing bubble.
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