Mar 10, 2021
Boom in consumer purchases in durable goods. Surging imports and price increases. Container shortage. Triggered by stimulus money.
Tracking the Fed, still buying bonds. Short term rates are locked down, but they’re encouraging higher long term rates, they’ve tripled so far. They could go up to 2% for 10 year and then they’ll cap it. 3% would be a major problem. We’re getting over 2% inflation. Long term rates are okay up to the inflation rate for now. The Fed has spoken with a unified voice that they’re accepting higher rates for now. As has Treasury Sec Yellen. Rising growth and rising rates are okay as long as they don’t go up too fast and too high.
Wolf sees it as the Fed’s minor way of bringing order back to the markets. Look for a slightly depressed housing sector. Clamping down on exuberence, pulling the punch bowl away. It could go pretty far if inflation and expectations continue higher. Eventually they will step in to stop long term rates from increasing higher.
Precious metals have already benefited from this beginning inflationary cycle. They might very well have gone up in anticipation of the beginnings of the cycle. If it turns out to be bigger and badder, then there could be another run-up. A lot of interest in cryptos could have drained demand for precious metals. Cryptos can’t be compared to anything else, by design. Supply is unlimited. Copycats galore. If enough hedge funds and asset managers buy it, the sky is the limit. There’s more cryptos than stocks now.
Everything is inflated except bonds, excluding junk bonds. Hard to recommend buying anything at this point. Everything is overvalued. Hang on to what you have and buy productive assets, those that generate a cash flow.