Bob Hoye, master market historian, was with us today to discuss what's going on with the share markets and with the commodity markets, as well as gold and silver. Of course no such discussion could be complete without talking about the US Dollar. While reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated, Bob was looking for it to hit 85 and it did a little bit better. Now it's pulling back a bit and we'll have to see if this is temporary or long term. But it's doing nothing out of the ordinary as this has happened in prior credit busts many times before, where the reserve currency always does well for a time anyway. 

Direct download: Bob_Hoye_13.Oct.14.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:20pm EST
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John writes. A rising stock market, like a rising tide, can cover a multitude of interesting and/or scary things. The thinking seems to be that if the finance guys who really know what’s going on are buying, then the disturbing stories that lead each evening’s news must be manageable. So, in general, we’re okay.

But let the market fall a bit and those headlines suddenly begin to seem both oppressive and really, really numerous. And maybe we’re not okay after all. To take just a few of the issues that, in the wake of the recent equity correction, now loom large:

Islamic State, the tiny band of religious crazies that the US armed to do its bidding in the Syrian civil war is now threatening to take Baghdad, capital of Iraq and home to a US embassy that will live forever in the annals of hubristic excess. Actually a small, self-contained city, the embassy contains all kinds of sensitive equipment, documents and personnel, and will be defended with (thousands of) boots on the ground if an Islamic State victory appears imminent — which it now seems to be. In other words, we’re getting ready to dump another trillion or so dollars into the hole where we previously dumped two trillion with nothing to show for it but chaos.

Direct download: John_Rubino_13.Oct.14.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:13pm EST
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Manipulation Mondays with Andrew Hoffman:

 - Last week, Andy wrote "2008, with one temporary exception" - which was PPT support of the U.S. stock market

 -now, breaking down horribly, which is why I think the title of my audioblog last Wednesday, "Has 'it' Begun?" is apropos.

 -European stock markets collapsing, small cap U.S. stocks, and ALL Western sovereign yields, with 10-year Treasury at 2.25% this morning and 30-year below 3.0%. i.e., the "most damning proof yet of QE failure."

 

Head of Shanghai Futures Exchange admitted this weekend that Chinese gold demand was above 2,000 tonnes in 2013, compared to global production of 2,770 tonnes.

 -validates record gold demand, and likely silver demand estimates as well.  Both are likely at or near 2013 levels this year, and early October U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales at fastest pace of year.

 

France outlook downgraded by S&P- PIIGS (or PIFIGS, with France) on verge of 2011-12 collapse, even with Draghi doing "whatever it takes."  Worse yet, Draghi fighting the Germans tooth and nail on the extent of QE - and without it, Europe implodes NOW.

 

Commodities collapsing, will have dire economic ramifications on mining/energy industry - and production; particularly in mining, where care of Cartel suppression, Capex is already down 50% in past two years, enroute to much lower levels in 2014.  PM mining industry on verge of collapse, IMO.

 

Geopolitical risks exploding, particularly in Iraq, where Kirkuk oil field within reach of ISIS, as well as Baghdad and key areas in Syria.  Iraqi government begging for 10,000 U.S. ground troops.

- plunging oil prices will only cause signficantly expanded tensions with Russians and Arabs.

Direct download: Andy_Hoffman_13.Oct.14.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EST
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