Oct 20, 2022
Summary:
Inflation numbers are coming out at 30 year highs, and CPI isn’t
going down any time soon. What indicators should we analyze in
order to explain the current economic circumstances? I sit down and
chat with Eddie Yoon, who attributes some of the trends in labor
force participation and unemployment to an unusual number of baby
boomers working for decades and now retiring. We are trying to
solve for something systemic by implementing short term solutions,
and businesses ultimately have to shift gears to cater to one two
two person households rather than the nuclear family. Tune in for
more insightful remarks from Eddie.
Highlights:
-Inflation numbers are coming out at 30 year record highs
-Unemployment numbers look good, but these are lagging
indicators
-CPI is not going down; is this good or bad? This is also a lagging
indicator
-We are causing inflation in order to fight inflation with interest
rates
-Consumer sentiment is trending up, which is a good sign
-The number of travelers is still trending upwards
-Labor force participation is low in comparison to the last 40
years
-If unemployment was higher, the Fed may back off
-There may be something simpler going on that explains what is
going on
-Baby boomers retiring may play into labor participation
-It’s not that things are problematic in the near term, it’s that
we had an unusually large work force for about three decades, and
these people are now retiring and leaving
-We’re solving for something systemic with short term solutions,
which is going to cause more damage
-The businesses that are going to do better will be less volume
dependent and more premium oriented
-Companies designed around the nuclear family will struggle, while
businesses designed for one to two person households will be more
successful
Useful Links:
Financial Survival Network
Eddie Would Grow