Sep 11, 2019
The numbers: The number of people who applied for unemployment
benefits in late August rose slightly to 215,000, but layoffs
remain remarkably low more than 10 years after the last recession
and show little sign of rising even as the economy faces stiffer
headwinds.
Initial jobless claims, a rough way to measure layoffs, increased
by 4,000 to 215,000 in the seven days ended Aug. 24, the government
said Thursday.
Economists polled by MarketWatch estimated new claims would total a
seasonally adjusted 214,000.
What happened: Raw or unadjusted jobless claims jumped by more than
4,500 in New York, likely accounting for most of the increase in
claims. New jobless claims were little changed in every other
state.
The more stable monthly average of new jobless claims, meanwhile,
edged down by 500 to 214,500.
The four-week average usually gives a more accurate read into
labor-market conditions than the more volatile weekly number. Both
remain close to a 50-year low, however.
The number of people in the U.S. already collecting unemployment
benefits, known as continuing claims, climbed by 22,000 to 1.7
million. These claims are near a more than 40-year low.
Big picture: Jobless claims are still extremely low and show no
sign of rising. The strong labor market is propping up a U.S.
economy being buffeted by a trade war with China and a slowing
global economy. Consumers are still confident enough to spend and
drive the economy forward.
There’s probably little reason to worry about until jobless claims
shoot above 230,000 and move toward 250,000, economists say.
What they are saying? “The labor market remains tight and solid,
layoff activity is light and there is no evidence in the economic
data that suggests that these conditions will change any time
soon,” said Thomas Simons, senior money market economist at
Jefferies LLC.
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.81% and
the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.84% rose in Thursday trades after
China said it would not retaliate immediately to the latest U.S.
increase in tariffs.
The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.99% edged up to 1.51%.
Amazing!